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A Hazy Future: Pennsylvania’s Energy Landscape in 2045

FracTracker published an extensive survey of the energy industry’s forecast on the oil and gas industry in the state this week.   Among the takeaways:

– Industry estimates the need for nearly 47,600 Marcellus Shale wells by 2045 to fuel the growing gas industry. Only 1,801 of the 10,851 unconventional wells already drilled as of Nov. 2017 count as part of this project, which means an additional 45,799, nearly 1,700 a year, are coming in the future.

– A buildout of this size will bring enormous impacts on air, land, and water and the communities proximate to these activities. Based on industry projections and current rates of consumption, the cumulative impact of the O&G buildout would require 583 billion gallons of fresh water, 386 million tons of sand, 798,000 acres of land, and more than 323 million truck trips to drilling sites. All of this activity will generate at least 131 billion gallons of liquid waste and 45 million tons of solid waste.

– Ethane consumption as a feedstock for Shell’s ethane cracker will be very significant, as the plant will be able to process 107,000 barrels of ethane per day (bpd) – or 4.5 million gallons. There are also a number of ethane pipelines to get the product to market, including the Mariner East, which can carry 70,000 bpd (2.9 million gallons per day) of ethane and other natural gas liquids (NGL) to the Philadelphia area.

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